What happens if Arsenal and Man City end up level on points and GD

It could go down to the wire

Pep Guardiola’s side managed a narrow 1-0 win against relegated Burnley on Wednesday night, just days after beating Arsenal 2-1 in what was considered the title deciding match.

After 33 games played, City’s victory put them level on 70 points with Arsenal and level on goal difference.

However, City have a superior tally of goals scored, giving them the slight edge.

As the competition for the title looks as close as ever, there is a chance that the top two in the Premier League will finish the season level on points.

Previously, this only happened once before in the history of the Premier League, with Manchester City the triumphant side.

In the 1988–89 season, Arsenal won the Football League on goals scored, after finishing level on points and goal difference with Liverpool.

The Gunners defeated Liverpool 2–0 in the final game of the season to win the championship, but it wasn’t called Premier League back then, as the competition was founded as the FA Premier League in February 1992.

Who would get crowned Premier League champion if the same happens this year?

As per rule C. 17 of the Premier League Handbook, there is criteria which determines the final table placings.

The criteria, in order, is as follows:

• goal difference
• goals scored
• points won in head-to-head matches
• away goals scored in head-to-head matches
• a playoff match

As it stands, Man City have a goal difference of +37, with 66 goals scored and 29 conceded.

On the other hand, Arsenal also have a goal difference of 37+, but they have scored 63 goals compared to City’s 66.

This means that they are now second in the league table due to the second criteria which is used to separate sides.

The main objective of Mikel Arteta’s team is now to outscore City in their final five games of the season.

What if the teams finish level on points, goal difference as well as goals scored?

In this case, Manchester City would win the title as they have been the more successful side in the two head-to-head meetings.

This season, City won 2-1 last weekend at the Etihad while the teams’ first meeting at Emirates back in September ended in a 1-1 draw.

Of course, City’s 2-0 over Arsenal in the Carabao Cup one month ago plays no role in the Premier League’s title outcome, but it just goes to show that City were the superior team this season in direct meetings.

While a playoff match to decide the title this season could have been possible had the match at the Etihad also ended in a 1-1 draw, Erling Haaland’s winner means the Premier League this season will definitely have a champion after 38 fixtures.

The 2011/12 season - when Sergio Aguero scored that famous injury time winner against QPR to give City the title - is the last and only time the Premier League’s top two finished level on points and the title was decided on goal difference.

City had finished level with United on 89 points, however they battered their rivals’ +56 goal difference thanks to a goal difference of +64, securing their first flight title in 44 years in the process.

While goal difference has settled the title race only once in history, a single point has been the title decider six different times.

Most recently this happened in the 2021/22 season when Man City managed a 3-2 comeback against Aston Villa on final day, much to Liverpool and Jurgen Klopp’s dismay.

Arsenal can regain the top spot this weekend when they host Newcastle United on Saturday, as Man City face Southampton in their FA Cup semi-final.

Which other leagues and countries saw their titles decided on goal difference?

In the UK, Rangers won the Scottish Premier League in 2003 on goal difference.

Rangers won 6–1 and Celtic won 4–0 in their last fixtures, which left Rangers with a goal difference of 73 (101 for and 28 against), and Celtic a goal difference of 72 (98 scored and 26 against).

In the Netherlands, heading into the final day of the 2006–07 Eredivisie season, three teams were still in contention to win the title.

PSV, Ajax and AZ Alkmaar were level on points heading to the last fixture of the season, but in the last match, AZ suffered a shocking defeat while Ajax and PSV were level on points.

In the end, PSV clinched the 2006–07 Eredivisie in one of the most exciting and dramatic finishes to a season, by beating Vitesse 5–1 and winning the title on goal difference (+50 to Ajax's +49).