First poll predicts outcome of Makerfield by-election

A first look

The by-election in Makerfield, Greater Manchester, was triggered in mid-May after Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down amid discontent in the party.

The idea is to allow current Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham a way back into parliament and take on Keir Starmer in a leadership contest to ultimately become prime minister.

A tight run race

Seeing the current diverse, political landscape in the UK, polling Makerfield is looking easier said than done with Reform and Restore Britain set to run in the by-election too.

This will see Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain debut on the major political stage.

With all this mind, the numbers are set to be close and the first, very preliminary polling is out.

On the left, the Greens had put forward candidate Chris Kennedy, but he withdrew only a matter of hours later.

This was partly due to sharing social media posts describing an attack on ambulances run by a Jewish charity as a "false flag", which he apologised for.

An early indication

The campaign trial has begun in Makerfield. Getty.

Research agency Survation is the first to get its foot in the proverbial polling door, and the results certainly make for interesting reading.

Before we get into the polling results, it must be said that these numbers need to be taken with a large pinch of salt and are purely an indication of the general feeling in Makerfield.

This is due to the small sample size of the poll of 369, between 18 and 22 May.

With this in mind, let's get into some numbers.

The scores on the political doors

The poll showed the Andy Burnham affect in full force, as it saw the Greater Manchester mayor win the by-election by just three points with 43% of the vote.

Second place in the poll was, unsurprisingly based on recent trends, Reform UK with 40%.

Maybe the most surprising number on this poll is Restore Britain in third place with 7%, much higher than the Greens' 3% (who of course have no candidate, but were still an option in the poll).

This is significant because it suggest that Restore may be splitting the more right-wing vote in Makerfield, as just half of that 7% would allow Reform to beat Labour.

Despite not currently having a candidate, the lower Green vote share, compared to recent trends, could suggest tactical voting among the left to allow Labour to beat Reform.

Elsewhere, the Lib Dems sit on 4% and the Tories on 2%, two parties which look to be playing a minor role in the by-election.

The poll in full:

LAB - 43%

REF - 40%

RES - 7%

LD - 4%

GRN - 3% (Currently no candidate)

CON - 2%

Other - 1%

When is the Makerfield by-election?

The Makerfield by-election will be taking place on 18 June, just over a month after Josh Simons stepped down.

This allows every party enough time to campaign in the relevant area, something many those running are already doing.

Here is each major party and their candidate running:

Labour: Andy Burnham

Reform: Robert Kenyon

Restore: Rebecca Shepherd

Green: Candidate pulled out

Lib Dems: Jake Austin

Conservatives: Michael Winstanley