British troops training for potential war with Russia in 2030

The UK must significantly increase defence investment or risk defeat.

In the scenario, it is 2030, and the troops form part of a UK-led NATO headquarters that has been rapidly deployed to Estonia following a Russian assault on the Baltic states in the opening phase of a conflict that could escalate into World War Three.

British forces and their allies, including US soldiers, have converted a disused section of Charing Cross Tube station into a makeshift underground base, treating it as a stand-in for Estonia’s capital, Tallinn.

It serves as an example of how civilian infrastructure can be repurposed for military use in a time of war.

From this underground command post, they work hunched over laptops and large screens, using artificial intelligence and other digital tools to rapidly identify Russian targets before directing coordinated attacks with drone swarms, missiles, and electronic jamming systems.

The exercise appears to be going well, but the troops are relying on software systems that are not yet fully integrated across the British military, along with weapons platforms that have not yet been bought.

In addition, commanders do not even know if the government will give them the billions of extra pounds in funding that they are understood to need to purchase this kit in sufficient volume, per Sky News.

In the wargame, the UK-led force must deploy over 5,000 drones each day for both reconnaissance and strike missions to remain competitive against a Russian adversary that is battle-hardened and resilient after years of combat in Ukraine.

Many of those drones would be single-use, which requires vast stocks of additional aircraft to replenish the frontline and an industrial base that can generate hundreds of thousands more.

This is something that the Ukrainian military and its industry partners are already doing in practice today.

However, it is understood that the British Army would currently only be able to deploy hundreds of drones per day, and even this level of output could not be sustained for long due to limited stockpiles. UK industry production lines have yet to be scaled to the level of manufacturing that would be required in a real conflict.

Commander of the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC), Lieutenant General Mike Elviss, outlined the challenge in a video message shown to Sky News and a group of other journalists invited on Wednesday to observe part of the simulation at Charing Cross station.

"The scenario you are about to see is very deliberately set in 2030 because that is where we see the threat from Russia to be at its most acute," he said.

"It's also when we could realistically deliver the modernised technology and increased readiness required to meet that threat, but only with the right investment now, and with the support of industry to build a national arsenal, not just of munitions stockpiles - although that's critical - but also of the national means of production that can scale in wartime.

"There is a huge opportunity here, but peril if we ignore the risk."

A failure by Sir Keir Starmer’s government to finalise a major defence investment plan, which should have been published last autumn, has already hampered the ability of the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force to rearm at the pace that many believe is necessary.

The defence secretary, John Healey, said earlier this week that the Defence Investment Plan would be out soon.

However, its publication is only part of the challenge at hand.

The Treasury is believed to have agreed to provide the Ministry of Defence with an additional £18bn over the next four years to support rearmament, but this falls short of what the military would require to be ready for a potential war with Russia by 2030.

Before descending a steep staircase between two stationary escalators to reach a disused platform on the London Underground, the visiting journalists at Charing Cross station were shown a mock television news broadcast titled World At War.

It started with a mock on-screen presenter who described how Russian troops have just attacked Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The invasion then prompted NATO allies to trigger Article 5, the alliance's founding principle, which means an attack on one member state is deemed to be an attack on all.

UK forces within the ARRC have relocated to Estonia, where the headquarters, which would include around 500 personnel from more than 20 allied nations if deployed in reality, is responsible for commanding a NATO corps of up to 100,000 troops.

The exercise sees just over 100 military personnel spread out along a train platform in both directions and across the inside space that connects them.

A location such as the Tube is well-suited to a military headquarters because it is deep underground, making it difficult for Russia to locate and target.

The focus on Moscow as the enemy in this exercise sets it apart from other NATO drills, where the opposing force is usually left unnamed but is widely understood by participants to represent the Kremlin.

As the battle unfolds, commanders exchange intelligence and refine plans to strike a Russian position.

They also coordinate with other military personnel who are deployed in Estonia in a real-world capacity.

The visiting journalists are then asked to wear virtual reality headsets to watch the attack unfold, with the UK and its allies, shown in blue, using drones, fast jets and rocket systems to strike what is identified as a valuable Russian target, shown in red.

Fake explosions illustrate successful hits.

Sky News reported that in the small section shown to the journalists, the Russian forces did not strike any British targets.

This wargame is taking place across the entire week, creating a lot of opportunities for soldiers to better understand their own weak points and what needs to be done to fix them.